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The CSI Consumer 360 index is rebounding after hitting the bottom, banks stocks are performing strongly against the trend, and under the continuous shrinking environment, defense may become the main melody for short-term trading.
Track the entire lifecycle of the main Sector.
Several listed Banks responded to the impact of the tariff war: it may affect loan demand and interest margins, and risk control thresholds will shift forward.
① Fully recognize the pressure that USA tariff policies may bring on loan demand and net interest margins. ② If the tariff disputes escalate further, it is believed that corresponding industrial or financial policies will be implemented to provide support.
How significant is the foreign trade related Business of major national Banks? The annual report of China Construction Bank mentions this, and the industry says the impact still needs to be observed.
① After the "reciprocal tariff" turmoil, do major Banks have any new countermeasures? Will it affect the Crediting volume in the second quarter? The interviewed Banks all stated that "it is inconvenient to respond". ② Cross-border trade Business and international settlement should be one of the focus areas for medium and large Banks, especially listed Banks, in recent years. The impact of this tariff turmoil still needs to be observed, making it difficult to reach a conclusion.
Since April, nearly 30 Banks have intensively lowered their fixed deposit interest rates, mainly for medium to long-term periods, with the end of the "New Year good start" being the main reason.
① Statistics by the financial media found that since April, 30 Banks in the country have lowered the interest rates on fixed deposit products, mostly for medium to long-term durations; ② The reasoning for raising interest rates around New Year's Day and lowering them in April is basically the same, "both are to serve the needs of 'good start'"; ③ After the 'good start' ends, the continued reduction of interest rates by Banks throughout the year is a major trend.
New trends in Real Estate Crediting: Postal Savings Bank, Everbright Bank and others strengthen their support for businesses, while Banks show divided attitudes toward personal housing loans.
① Multiple Banks are increasing their lending in the real estate sector. ② In terms of personal housing mortgages, Banks have differing attitudes: some Banks state they will increase mortgage lending, while others indicate a "cautious approach."
UBS Global strategy: What do USA tariffs mean for Emerging Markets Crediting?
A key channel for the deterioration of Crediting expectations in Emerging Markets is exports.