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Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: The historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
Changsha's housing provident fund introduces new policies: the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second set of housing is 20%, and the maximum loan amount can be increased to four times.
①Employees' families purchasing their first or second improved self-occupied housing applying for housing provident fund loans, the minimum down payment ratio is uniformly adjusted to 20%; ②The maximum loan amount for high-level talents in categories A, B, C, and D purchasing their first self-occupied housing can be increased to four times the maximum loan amount in Changsha.
Among first-tier cities, shanghai was the first to cancel the standard for regular and non-regular residential properties, and it has comprehensively reduced the cost of housing trade taxes and fees.
① Shanghai is the first of the four first-tier cities to abolish the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, and it is expected that the other three first-tier cities will also quickly eliminate the relevant standards. ② The latest policies in Shanghai will reduce personal income tax and housing transaction tax, making transaction costs more reasonable, while better meeting residents' replacement needs; these measures will enhance the confidence of market participants and are beneficial for further stabilizing market expectations.
This year, the cumulative issuance of real estate bonds decreased by 20% year-on-year, indicating a possible policy turning point.
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