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Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
According to the Finger Research Institute, in October, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities dropped by 7.27% compared to the same period last year.
According to data monitoring by the China Index Academy, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities was 14,360 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.60%, narrowing the decline by 0.10 percentage points compared to September; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%.
Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: The historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
Changsha's housing provident fund introduces new policies: the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second set of housing is 20%, and the maximum loan amount can be increased to four times.
①Employees' families purchasing their first or second improved self-occupied housing applying for housing provident fund loans, the minimum down payment ratio is uniformly adjusted to 20%; ②The maximum loan amount for high-level talents in categories A, B, C, and D purchasing their first self-occupied housing can be increased to four times the maximum loan amount in Changsha.
Real estate policies continue to stimulate real estate stocks, r&f properties rose more than 5%.
① What are the main contents of the "Notice on Canceling the Standards for Ordinary Housing"? ② How do market policies affect the real estate market?
Among first-tier cities, shanghai was the first to cancel the standard for regular and non-regular residential properties, and it has comprehensively reduced the cost of housing trade taxes and fees.
① Shanghai is the first of the four first-tier cities to abolish the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, and it is expected that the other three first-tier cities will also quickly eliminate the relevant standards. ② The latest policies in Shanghai will reduce personal income tax and housing transaction tax, making transaction costs more reasonable, while better meeting residents' replacement needs; these measures will enhance the confidence of market participants and are beneficial for further stabilizing market expectations.
The Zhongzi Research Institute: Last week, the year-on-year increase in the housing market was significant, with 1.46 million square meters of residential land transacted in 40 large and medium-sized cities.
The China Real Estate Research Institute stated in a document that last week the overall real estate transaction volume decreased compared to the previous week, but increased year-on-year, with first-tier cities leading the year-on-year increase at 43.34%.
Home Prices in Major Chinese Cities Show Slight Improvement
China Academy of Urban Planning and Design: Expectations for the real estate market and buyers' confidence have somewhat recovered, with a significant increase in the activity of the real estate market in October.
Currently, the volume and price of the core urban market have shown preliminary signs of stabilizing after a decline. If further supportive policies can be introduced in the future to consolidate the effects of previous policies, core cities may have the potential to achieve stabilization after a decline.
Hong Kong stocks fluctuated | Mainland real estate stocks fell further in the afternoon as the real estate increment policy still has room, with new housing supply falling back in November.
Mainland real estate stocks widened their afternoon decline. As of press time, RonshineChina (03301) fell by 7.94% to HKD 0.58; Sino-Ocean Group (03377) fell by 7.89% to HKD 0.35; Zhongliang Hldg (02772) fell by 6.62% to HKD 0.141.
This year, the cumulative issuance of real estate bonds decreased by 20% year-on-year, indicating a possible policy turning point.
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Hong Kong stocks fluctuate | Mainland real estate stocks lead the decline in the morning, supporting the upcoming introduction of tax policies related to real estate, real estate is expected to stabilize and bottom out.
Mainland real estate stocks led the decline in the morning session. As of the time of publication, R&F Properties (02777) fell by 8.33% to HK$1.98; Sunac (01918) fell by 7.34% to HK$3.03; RonshineChina (03301) fell by 6.06% to HK$0.62; Seazen (01030) fell by 4.94% to HK$2.31.
First-time home loan interest rates in cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou have returned to the "3" level. The interest rate for provident fund loans may be even further reduced due to inversion.
Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and other places have successively adjusted mortgage interest rates. Industry insiders believe that in the current stabilization trend of the real estate market, cities raising the lower limit of mortgage interest rates have a certain significance as an indicator.
Ke Rui: In October, the performance of the top 100 real estate companies increased year-on-year for the first time this year, while investment remains cautious.
In October, corporate investment still remains cautious, with less than 20% of the top 100 companies in terms of land acquisition recording new land reserves in a single month. Key monitoring companies' investment expansion failed to continue the trend of stabilizing after the decline in September.
China Real Estate Research Institute: The total amount of bonds financing for national real estate companies in October was 28.97 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase for two consecutive months.
In October 2024, the total amount of real estate corporate bonds financing was 28.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with two consecutive months of positive growth due to the low base effect of the previous year, decreasing by 32.4% month-on-month.
China's Property Market Likely to Continue Near-Term Recovery -- Market Talk
Market Chatter: China Sees Slightly Faster Home Price Growth in October
The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in Silver October have turned the corner, with over 80% performance growth compared to the previous month.
①Affected by favorable policies and real estate developers' promotions, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies in October achieved a year-over-year positive growth for the first time this year. ②Among them, 83 real estate companies saw a month-on-month sales increase, with 33 more compared to September; 38 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year sales growth, with 22 more than in September.
Hong Kong stocks are on the move | Mainland real estate stocks collectively opened high, with sales of the top 100 real estate companies in October increasing by over 70% month-on-month. The policy combination continues to exert force.
Mainland real estate stocks opened high collectively. As of the time of publication, China Jinmao (00817) rose by 2.48% to HKD 1.24; Longfor Group (00960) rose by 2.06% to HKD 12.88; China res land (01109) rose by 1.93% to HKD 26.35; Midea real est (03990) rose by 3.61% to HKD 3.44.
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