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Ping An Securities: Typical urban suburban areas have accumulated inventory and long turnover periods. It is expected that the bottoming out will lag behind the improvement of core areas and good products in the sector.
The path for the real estate industry to "stop falling and stabilize" will follow: "Good products — core areas in first-tier and second-tier cities — stabilization of the national economy — stabilization of the national housing market — stabilization of investment". Low-tier areas (suburbs of second-tier cities + third and fourth-tier cities) are hindered by high inventory levels, leading to a relatively delayed stabilization.
Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
Guolian: The effects of the policy are becoming apparent, with marginal improvements in property/a-reit market sales in October.
According to the national statistics released in January-October 2024, the report on the basic situation of the national real estate market shows that the year-on-year decline in sales area, sales amount, and completed area has all narrowed.
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
According to the Finger Research Institute, in October, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities dropped by 7.27% compared to the same period last year.
According to data monitoring by the China Index Academy, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residences in 100 cities was 14,360 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.60%, narrowing the decline by 0.10 percentage points compared to September; a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%.
Credit Rating of Major Banks | CICC: Significant improvement in domestic real estate data, first recommendation is china overseas, longfor group, and greentown china
Jianyin International released a report stating that, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market in China showed significant improvement in October, narrowing from a year-on-year decline of 16.3% in September to 1% in October, thanks to strong policy support implemented in September and October. On a monthly basis, sales in October saw a 12.9% decrease compared to September. As of October, real estate sales declined by 20.9%, with the sales area decreasing by 15.8% and the average price dropping by 6.1%. The significant improvement in nationwide sales in October is consistent with the industry data released by the China Index Academy. Analyzing by city tier, the recovery of sales in first, second, and third-tier cities.
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