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Just today! The first results of Japan's "Shuntō" have been released, and the increase in wages will determine the pace of interest rate hikes.
Economists predict that Japan's largest union will achieve approximately a 5% salary increase this year, close to last year's level. A result below expectations may prompt the Bank of Japan to adopt a more cautious stance on interest rate hikes.
Japanese bonds have fallen to their lowest point since 2009! The Governor of the Bank of Japan reiterates the determination to 'reduce the balance sheet' and holds an optimistic view on salary prospects.
Kazuo Ueda stated, "From now on, we may see inflation easing driven by import costs, while wages will continue to rise steadily. Therefore, we expect real wages and Consumer spending to improve in the future." The Bank of Japan has also begun to implement an Algo tightening plan, with the monthly purchase of Bonds expected to be halved to 3 trillion yen by early 2026.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Consumer spending is expected to improve, continuing to reduce the "excessive" balance sheet.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Kazuo, expressed an optimistic attitude towards Consumer on Thursday and reiterated the Bank of Japan's determination to reduce its "overly large" Assets and Liabilities, indicating that the bank is still gradually reducing its monetary stimulus to the economy.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates in March, with over 70% of economists predicting a rate increase to 0.75% in July.
The latest survey shows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain the benchmark interest rate at its meeting on March 18-19, with only one surveyed economist expecting a policy adjustment. As for the timing of future rate hikes, economists generally agree: about 70% (40/57) of respondents expect that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 0.75% in the third quarter (July-September), an increase from February's survey (65%). In terms of specific month predictions, 70% (26/37) of analysts believe that the likelihood of a rate hike in July is the highest, while June, April-May, March and September-October all have some possibility.
BOJ Governor Expects Consumption To Improve On Wage Rise
JGBs Edge Higher; Declines in U.S. Treasurys May Weigh -- Market Talk