Caixin C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, while the central bank still has ample room for expansion.
① The median forecast for new RMB loans in October is 0.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 trillion yuan; ② The median forecast for new social financing scale in October is 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.38 trillion yuan; ③ The year-on-year reading of CPI in October may remain unchanged, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may narrow; ④ Fiscal policy will increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and the central bank still has ample space for expanding its balance sheet.
"Bond Guardian" returns! Regardless of who wins, will US bond yields still hit 5%?
Bond investors are "voting with their feet," betting that the continued interest rate cuts by the Fed and the expansionary fiscal policy of the next government will push up long-term inflation. Once the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is pushed up to 5%, it will impact the Fed's subsequent rate-cutting actions.
The central bank has once again introduced a new liquidity management tool, suitable for the habits of overseas investors, which can better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF by the end of the year.
1. This is also a new tool launched by the central bank after temporary reverse repurchase and bond trading since the beginning of this year; 2. The term of buy-back repurchase does not exceed 1 year, which can further enrich the liquidity management tools and better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF before the end of the year; 3. Overseas investors are more accustomed to the buy-back repurchase commonly used internationally.
Bond market closing | Many large banks lowered deposit rates today, equity performance suppressed the bond market, with long-term interest rates rising by about 2 basis points.
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that promoting a reasonable rise in prices will be an important consideration, with a greater emphasis on the role of interest rates and other price-based regulatory tools.
Bond market closing | The central bank and the Ministry of Finance exchanged views on the operation of the bond market, the sentiment of treasury bonds warmed up, and the 30-year national bond interest rate fell more than 4 basis points.
The stock market is pulling back, with long-term bond bullish sentiment being released, yields significantly down, but the short end may be affected by precautionary redemptions, with political and financial bonds within 2 years seeing a sharp increase.
Yield approaching key levels, increased necessity of central bank buying and selling government bonds.
The 10-year government bond yield has reached 2.1191%, approaching the key level of 2.1%; Experts point out that at the current moment, facing the low yield of the bond market, it is necessary for the central bank to conduct government bond transactions.